Recently, get market attention fully newspaper of Chinese economy half an year had given heat 2013. To broad public, what care about most is two data ——GDP and CPI. The data that national statistic bureau publishs shows, first half of the year, gross domestic product twenty-four thousand eight hundred billion nine hundred million yuan, grow 7.6% compared to the same period, total level of price of countrywide dweller consumption rises compared to the same period 2.4% .
On July 9, premier Li Kejiang is chaired in Guangxi hold a part to visit an area economic situation informal discussion. He points out, macroscopical adjusting control wants base oneself upon current, have sth in mind is long-term, make economy moves be in reasonable interval, equality of water of economic increase rate, obtain employment does not slip piece " floor level " , prices rises wait to be not exceeded " upper limit " . Inside a such reasonable interval, want exert oneself to move reform of structure, hurried, drive economic transition to upgrade.
On July 16, premier Li Kejiang is chaired hold economic situation expert and company controller informal discussion, he points out, look from domestic and international practice, economy moves appear to fluctuate certainly, have objective inevitability. The main purpose of macroscopical adjusting control should avoid economy is old cases to fall greatly namely, make economy moves maintain in reasonable interval. Its " floor level " it is steady growth, maintain obtain employment, "Upper limit " be on guard namely inflation.
Upper limit and floor level form " reasonable interval is talked " become the market understands and sentenced macroscopical policy to bring new perspective beforehand.
Upper limit is not ceiling floor level also is not equal to a bottom line
Since this year, our country economy moves to keep smooth on the whole, the reasonable interval that main index still is in year to anticipate (gross domestic product is accorded with 7.5% target; dwellers of the left and right sides consume governmental working report this year the price rises compared to the same period 2.4% , also control the) of 3.5% less than that sentences beforehand in the beginning of the year, economic structural adjustment is firm in have into, transition upgrades firm in carry qualitative. To our country this economy train is told, prospective economy environment is more daedal, advantage and adverse element coexist, economy has growth power already, have pressure of be issued to lower levels again.
watch caseSteady growth is economy those who move " floor level " , namely equality of water of economic increase rate, obtain employment does not slip piece " floor level " . Leader layer runs the economy this year " floor level " grow 7.5% to control in GDP surely, be in recent years of our country economy inferior add fast. Before be being compared at every turn of two digit add fast, really difference is very big. But considering our country had been the world system of the 2nd old economy, with 5 years before, the photograpfree modern dining chairsh 10 years ago is compared, every grow GDP now the amount of a percent is large different. Current, the potential increase rate of our country economy drops already was objective law, add at present fast putting delay also is our country government " intended " policy choice. Cannot go after GDP one-sidedly, do not tell GDP impossibly also, cast off only " only GDP is talked " psychological chains, exert oneself moves reform of structure, hurried, ability drives our country economy to be on the road that transition upgrades.
Preventing inflation is economy those who move " upper limit " , prices rises wait to be not exceeded " upper limit " . Maintaining price total level to be stabilized basically is the main goal of macroscopical adjusting control from beginning to end, according to the target of the set at the beginning of this year, dweller consumption price rises this year want control to be in 3.5% the left and right sides. At present exterior economic situation tends stable, global loose monetary policy is moving toward end, domestic policy signal is clearly " dish put alive it is quantity, good to use increment " , superintendency layer strengthened the management to fluidity, supply of money of country of second half of the year and social financing dimensions will put delay, the price of 2 quarters tomorrow that the Central Bank announces anticipates the index shows enterprise and dweller inflation predict farther abate. Additional, price of consumption of our country dweller rises compared to the same period first half of the year this year 2.4% , far the target that makes under the beginning of the year. Accordingly, appearing below big accident and fluctuant case, be on guard of inflation " upper limit " the target can foreknow completely.
Of course, economic rate does not fall at a draught, want to avoid big wave motion, also be the need of objective law. Economy is sound of growth " floor level " either " bottom line " , "Bottom line " it is ewatch casesconomy grows 7% . "Floor level is talked " it is actually a kind " bottom line thinking " —— decision-making layer is patient to economic be issued to lower levels degree rise, but cannot under potential increase rate, active attune structure but cannot endanger economic stability. If break through a bottom line, decision-making layer won't sit by and watch pays no attention to; to did not break through a bottom line, be about to clutch reform of tone structure, hurried. In the backside of this kind of judgement, be a kind already interest is current the economy with long-term interest is logistic, the market should not be immersed in the error of bottom line thinking because of short line perspective again.
The hand that invites the market moves to produce more effect inside reasonable interval
Premier Li Kejiang points out, progress of current China economy has a lot of advantage already, also face the daedal situation that has no for years, global economy anabiosises hardship and pressure of domestic economy be issued to lower levels interweave, question of economic developing be in a dilemma is more. The main task that the annual economy society that should achieve conference of central economy job to decide this year develops, conditional to this China capable to have hope, but also should give a lot of effort.
To macroscopical adjusting control, can " reasonable interval is talked " configure the appearance that go up as train of our country economy dish. Has this held reasonable interval and policy framework: with respect to need? This confuses Song macroscopical policy of? of big and thick of twin of inclined smooth should emphasize particularly on steady growth; moves wheharrison hot spring public pooln economy when approaching upper limit, macroscopical policy should emphasize particularly on prevent inflation. Steady growth provided space and basis to move a structure, tone structure will lay the cornerstone of long-term steady growth. In the meantime, those who assure to move structure and huthe most popular selling norton internet antivirusrried reform is medium long-term measure photograph is united in wedlock, make economy moves maintain in reasonable interval. Additional, notice even " on, floor level " index value won't be invariable, but relative stability should is inside period of time, the market and society can form stability to anticipate.
Say furtnorth face shirtsher, adjusting control should accord with the target of economic structural adjustment and economic transition, let economy move be in reasonable space, still need to produce the effect of market mechanism better, bring folk into play effectively to invest enthusiasm, more enhance market vigor significantly. Adjusting control method is in limitation equality of water of economic increase rate, obtain employment is not slippery piece " floor level " , prices rises wait to be not exceeded " upper limit " , This one " floor level " mix " upper limit " it is the reasonable space that economy runs, want not to give these two limit more only, the hand that governmental administration intervenes won't move easily, can let what market proper motion solves " the hand of the market " will undertake modulatory.
In fact, decision-making layer " let economy move in reasonable interval " policy intent, it is the main task that develops to achieve annual economy society not only lay next solid foundations, also be to be our country economy to better transition upgrades and advance each reform to create a condition. Current, many difficulty and challenge are faced in Chinese economy, economic environment is more daedal, below such setting, should realize economy to last healthy progress, advance structural adjustment and transition to upgrade, macroscopical policy should hold good economy adequately to move " be restricted up and down " . Steady growth can create effective space and condition to move a structure, tone structure can add reserve strength for economic progress, both supplement each other; and do away with system mechanism obstacle through reform, can be the power with steady growth and tone structure new infuse.
Steady growth should maintain obtain employment actually namely
Obtain employment of urban and rural dweller serves as a when measure economy to move main index, same confirm economy is smooth. This year first half of the year, our country town increases obtain employment newly 7.25 million person, than last year the corresponding period increases 310 thousand. Findings of monthly unemployment rate shows national statistic bureau, stabilithe most popular norton internet antivirusty of our country unemployment rate is in first half of the year 5% the left and right sides. Visible, the obtain employment contribution that in recent years economy grows spends the state that carries ceaseless promotion on the whole, its are main the positive change that drive element may be industrial structure 3, serve as namely " the largest obtain employment is accommodated implement " proportion of service line of business rises ceaselessly.
Current difficult problem is undergraduate obtain employment. It is when pressure of economic be issued to lower levels is greater, obtain employment level will be great test policy is decision-making. Working report of government of the beginning of the year gave out to expect an end to the obtain employment this year likewise, namely town increases obtain employment newly above of 9 million person, town registers unemployment rate under 4.6% . But this year is " history go up season of the most difficult obtain employment " , if why be added in economy fast firm in the stability that hasten falls to leave implementation obtain employment to setting grows, the balance site of accurate economy growth and obtain employment seeks below the circumstance that does not enlarge a money to put in, it is to think a difficult problem of method of governmental adjusting control.
The economic growth of 7.5% and obtain employment are direct and relevant. Calculate according to authoritative branch, our country shows level to want to maintain obtain employment, make town investigates unemployment rate control to be in 5% the left and right sides, economy is added fast cannot under 7.2% , can pound obtain employment directly otherwise. Mixethe best selling watch casesd 2008 2009 once passivity has had " pressure checks " , slip when GDP 7% the following when, obtain employment appeared really problem. Accordingly, maintain of 7.5% add fast, actually namely for " maintain obtain employthe best selling modern dining chairsment " . Henceforth, as economic structural adjustment, serve the development of course of study esnorton internet antiviruspecially, the obtain employment of our country inducts ability escalate, although economy is added fast again a few lharrison hot spring dealower, of obtain employment " bottom " also be to have assure. Additional, come true to grow and maintain obtain employment firmly, still ought to build system of more accurate, authoritative obtain employment statistic, in order to offer decision-making layer reference.
So, the economy that keeps reasonable is added fast very important, namely " reasonable interval is talked " for dial of the appearance on economic train configuration. Without fixed rate, enlarge obtain employment, raise income and ameliorative civilian to be born to do not have corporeal foundation, raise economy to increase quality and benefit also have no way is mentioned. Somebody thinks, economic slowdown is helpful for forcing structural adjustment, but rate is not lower better. Economy once stall, enter inertial glide orbit, confidence is short of break glide to be able to form vicious circle with economy, not only structural adjustment is advanced effectively hard, and economy is basic the face still can get massive harm, restarted difficulty and cost also can raise greatly. Accordingly, we cannot disregard development environment and conditional change already, blind exciting economy grows, also cannot indulge economy slowdown drops a reasonable interval.
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